🔴
Stock Risk — Mother's Day (May)Hydra Boost Moisturiser projected to breach safety stock by 28 Apr. Expedite 12,000 units from Manufacturer A immediately.
🟡
Demand Overrun — Vitamin C SerumMar tracking +22% above forecast. Eye Cream at 4.2 wks cover — below 4-week safety stock minimum.
🟢
Spring Launch On TrackSPF 50+ Daily new SKU confirmed for Sep delivery. Stock buffer secured with Local Filler (SYD).
Revenue YTD
$1.2M
↑ 8.3% vs LY
Forecast Accuracy
87%
↑ 4pp vs LY
Fill Rate (OTIF)
94%
↑ 2pp vs target
Avg Inventory Cover
6.2wk
↓ 0.8wk vs target
Service Level
96%
↑ 1pp vs Q4
SKUs at Risk
3
of 18 active SKUs
Demand vs Forecast vs Supply Plan — FY2026
Units ('000) · All SKUs · Jan–Mar Actuals, Apr–Dec Forecast
Revenue Mix by Product
% share YTD Mar 2026
Demand Uplift by Promo Month
% uplift vs baseline — FY2026
SKU Status Summary — March 2026
| Product | Units/Mo | Fcst Dev. | Cover (wks) | Supply Risk | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hydra Boost Moisturiser | 22,400 | +5% | 5.1 | High | At Risk |
| Vitamin C Serum | 18,200 | +22% | 4.8 | Med | Watch |
| Gentle Cleanser | 25,100 | +2% | 8.4 | Low | On Track |
| SPF 50+ Daily | 15,600 | -3% | 7.2 | Low | On Track |
| Eye Revive Cream | 9,800 | +8% | 4.2 | High | At Risk |
📈 Demand Planning
Monthly Demand: Actual vs Forecast
Units ('000) · Jan–Dec 2026
Demand Mix by Product
Unit share YTD
Forecast Accuracy Trend
% accuracy by month · Target 90%
Demand Plan Detail — FY2026 (Units '000)
| Product | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moisturiser | 18.5 | 21.2 | 22.4 | 24.0 | 35.8 | 26.0 | 28.5 | 27.0 | 24.5 | 23.0 | 42.0 | 38.5 | 331.4 |
| Vitamin C Serum | 15.0 | 17.5 | 18.2 | 19.5 | 28.0 | 21.0 | 20.5 | 19.0 | 22.0 | 20.0 | 35.0 | 30.0 | 265.7 |
| Gentle Cleanser | 22.0 | 23.5 | 25.1 | 24.5 | 26.0 | 24.0 | 25.5 | 26.0 | 25.5 | 26.5 | 30.0 | 28.5 | 307.1 |
| SPF 50+ Daily | 8.5 | 10.0 | 15.6 | 20.5 | 24.0 | 22.0 | 18.0 | 22.0 | 28.0 | 25.0 | 18.0 | 10.5 | 222.1 |
| Eye Revive Cream | 8.0 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 18.0 | 16.5 | 140.3 |
| TOTAL | 72.0 | 81.7 | 91.1 | 99.0 | 129.8 | 104.0 | 102.5 | 103.5 | 110.5 | 105.5 | 143.0 | 124.0 | 1,266.6 |
🏭 Supply Planning
Production Capacity
130k
units/month max
Avg Utilisation
82%
↑ 5pp vs LY
Lead Time (Avg)
8wk
Mfr A: 6wk · Mfr B: 10wk
Supplier OTIF
91%
↑ 3pp vs target
Production Plan vs Capacity — FY2026
Units ('000) · Red line = 130k capacity ceiling
Supplier Performance Summary
| Supplier | Products | Lead Time | OTIF | Capacity/mo | Risk | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturer A (Shenzhen) | Moisturiser, Cleanser | 6 weeks | 94% | 80,000 | Low | Active |
| Manufacturer B (Kuala Lumpur) | Serum, Eye Cream | 10 weeks | 86% | 50,000 | Med | Monitor |
| Local Filler (Sydney) | SPF 50+ Daily | 3 weeks | 98% | 30,000 | Low | Active |
Production Schedule — Apr to Jun 2026 (critical pre-build window)
| Product | Apr Plan | May Plan | Jun Plan | Supplier | Pre-Build? | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moisturiser | 28,000 | 38,000 | 28,000 | Mfr A | YES — urgent | Expedite PO now |
| Vitamin C Serum | 22,000 | 30,000 | 23,000 | Mfr B | Yes | Confirm Q2 PO by Apr 1 |
| Gentle Cleanser | 26,000 | 28,000 | 26,000 | Mfr A | No | On plan |
| SPF 50+ Daily | 22,000 | 26,000 | 24,000 | Local | No | On plan |
| Eye Revive Cream | 12,000 | 18,000 | 12,000 | Mfr B | YES — urgent | Expedite PO now |
📦 Inventory Management
Total Stock on Hand
612k
units across all SKUs
Avg Cover
6.2wk
Target: 7 weeks
Above Safety Stock
78%
SKUs above min level
Excess Stock @ Risk
$48k
Potential obsolescence
Inventory Cover by SKU — Weeks on Hand
vs 4-week safety stock minimum (dashed line)
Inventory Detail by SKU — March 2026
| Product | Stock on Hand | Safety Stock | Cover (wks) | In Transit | Next PO Due | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hydra Boost Moisturiser | 114,200 | 90,000 | 5.1 | 24,000 | 15 Apr | Below Min |
| Vitamin C Serum | 87,400 | 72,000 | 4.8 | 18,000 | 22 Apr | Watch |
| Gentle Cleanser | 211,000 | 100,000 | 8.4 | — | 10 May | On Track |
| SPF 50+ Daily | 112,200 | 62,000 | 7.2 | 30,000 | 1 May | On Track |
| Eye Revive Cream | 41,200 | 39,000 | 4.2 | 12,000 | 8 Apr | At Risk |
🗓️ Promotional Calendar 2026
Promotions × Supply/Demand Alignment
Monthly view · All SKUs · MAR = current month
Gifting
Campaign
Clearance
Launch
High risk
Med risk
Low risk
| Metric | JAN | FEB | MAR ◀ | APR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | OCT | NOV | DEC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Promotion | New Year Refresh | Valentine's Day 💝 | Autumn Skin | Easter Beauty | Mother's Day 🔑 | EOFY Sale | Winter Skin | — | Spring Launch ✨ | Spring Fresh | Black Friday 🔥 | Christmas 🎄 |
| Demand Uplift | +15% | +25% | +12% | +10% | +45% | +30% | +20% | Base | +35% | +18% | +60% | +50% |
| Demand (k units) | 72 | 82 | 91 | 99 | 130 | 104 | 103 | 104 | 111 | 106 | 143 | 124 |
| Supply Plan (k) | 80 | 85 | 95 | 105 | 125 | 110 | 108 | 110 | 118 | 110 | 130 | 128 |
| Supply Gap (k) | +8 | +3 | +4 | +6 | -5 ⚠️ | +6 | +5 | +6 | +7 | +4 | -13 ⚠️ | +4 |
| Supply Risk | Low | Low | Low | Med | High | Med | Low | Low | Med | Low | High | Med |
| Promo Spend ($k) | $18 | $22 | $15 | $12 | $55 | $40 | $20 | — | $35 | $18 | $80 | $65 |
| Key SKUs | Cleanser, Serum | Eye, Moisturiser | All | All | All — Full Range | SPF, Moisturiser | Moisturiser, Eye | — | Serum, SPF (new) | All spring SKUs | All | Gift sets, All |
| Action Required | Monitor | Monitor | On track | Pre-build stock | Expedite PO now | Confirm supply | Monitor | Baseline | Confirm launch qty | Monitor | Build Aug onwards | Gift packaging |
Demand vs Supply Plan with Promo Events
Units ('000) monthly · FY2026
💰 Financial Summary
Revenue YTD
$1.2M
↑ 8.3% vs LY
Gross Margin
62%
↑ 1.5pp vs LY
Promo Spend YTD
$55k
4.6% of revenue
Promo ROI
3.8x
↑ 0.4x vs LY
Revenue Fcst FY
$5.4M
↑ 12% vs LY
EBITDA Margin
41%
↑ 4pp vs LY
Revenue & Gross Profit — Monthly FY2026
$000s · Jan–Mar Actuals (solid), Apr–Dec Forecast (lighter)
Promo Spend vs Revenue Uplift
By event ($k) — FY2026
Gross Margin by Product
% YTD Mar 2026
P&L Summary — FY2026 ($000s)
| Line Item | Q1 Act | Q2 Fcst | Q3 Fcst | Q4 Fcst | FY2026 | FY2025 | vs LY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Revenue | $1,204 | $1,580 | $1,320 | $1,650 | $5,754 | $4,820 | +19% |
| Promo Discounts | ($55) | ($120) | ($75) | ($200) | ($450) | ($380) | +18% |
| Net Revenue | $1,149 | $1,460 | $1,245 | $1,450 | $5,304 | $4,440 | +20% |
| COGS | ($437) | ($555) | ($473) | ($551) | ($2,016) | ($1,820) | +11% |
| Gross Profit | $712 | $905 | $772 | $899 | $3,288 | $2,620 | +26% |
| Gross Margin % | 62% | 62% | 62% | 62% | 62% | 59% | +3pp |
| Opex (Marketing, G&A) | ($240) | ($290) | ($265) | ($310) | ($1,105) | ($980) | +13% |
| EBITDA | $472 | $615 | $507 | $589 | $2,183 | $1,640 | +33% |
| EBITDA Margin % | 41% | 42% | 41% | 41% | 41% | 37% | +4pp |